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Australian ICT skills will be lured offshore according to Candle Skills Index
Figure 1 compares employment for Computing Professionals with total employment, which has been lagged by two quarters. It displays the lagged relationship between Total Australian Employment and the employment of Computing Professionals within Australia. For example, the growth in Total Australian Employment for the June quarter 2011 has been compared to the growth in employment for Computer Professionals for the December quarter 2011.
As such, two quarters of employment forecasts have been included from the Candle – KPMG Econtech Computing Professionals Skills Index Forecasting Model to highlight the continuing relationship.
The Candle Skills Index uses vacancy data from the DEEWR Vacancy Report.
This report contains two data series, the Internet Vacancy Index (IVI) and Skilled Vacancy Index (SVI). The key difference between the two series is the way the vacancy data are collected.
The SVI is based on a newspaper count of job advertisements, whereas the IVI is based on online vacancies newly lodged on SEEK, My Career, CareerOne and Australian JobSearch.
Data for the IVI series starts from 2006 and is compared to the SVI data in Figure 3.
The online job vacancy data for Computing Professionals in New Zealand and Australia have followed each other closely.
Vacancies fell strongly in the wake of the GFC in both countries and have climbed again in more recent times.
However, both series remain well below levels advertised in the June quarter 2007. New Zealand is showing slightly stronger signs of growth in online job vacancies for Computing Professional that currently for Australia.
The above chart shows that, historically, the Candle Skills Index for Computing Professionals was in the high range between 2006 and 2008.
The shortage of Computing Professionals then was the result of strong economic growth coupled with an extremely low unemployment rate, which resulted in a very tight labour market. The labour market fell significantly in 2008-09 with the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).
Non-essential projects were shelved, investment all but stopped and growth in the economy ground to a halt, severely impacting the demand for these professionals.