IDC: E-Commerce to Exceed US$1.6 Trillion

BOSTON (06/05/2000) - The U.S. will not continue to dominate the global electronic-commerce market, which will reach US$1.6 trillion by 2003, according to a study released today by International Data Corp. (IDC).

The U.S share of Internet commerce will dive from 62 percent last year to 48 percent next year, IDC found in the study, based on 40,000 interviews in 31 countries. The study found that 38 percent of Internet users surveyed will buy goods and services over the Net by 2003, compared to 29 percent by the end of this year.

This is the last year that the U.S. will dominate the e-commerce market because the number of international buyers and transactions is on a sharp rise, said David Emberley, an analyst with IDC, based in Framingham, Massachusetts.

"The Web is becoming less U.S.-centric. Europe is a much bigger player and enjoys the quickest growth," he said.

Europe, according to market analysts, is number one when it comes to the wireless market, which accounts for that region's current momentum.

By 2003, the number of Internet users will rise by 33 percent worldwide, compared to 23 percent in the U.S., with the number of Internet shoppers growing 47 percent worldwide, compared to 28 percent in the U.S. The number of World Wide Web pages will increase by 75 percent in the same time period, IDC predicted.

Most online spending will involve business-to-business (B2B) transactions, Emberley said. Of the expected $1.6 trillion in spending, $1.4 trillion will be related to B2B, with the rest coming from business-to-consumer spending.

User fears about Internet security is no longer a problem for online buyers, according to IDC analyst Chris Christiansen.

"People are coming to the realization that purchasing over the Net is safer than in the real world," he said, adding that the assortment of goods and services available on the Internet is fueling the increase in spending.

IDC, based in Framingham, can be reached at http://www.idc.com/.

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