Internet's busted boom is poised for build cycle

Despite being in the middle of a recession in the aftermath of the dotcom bubble bursting, the best of the Internet revolution is still to come.

Speaking at a technology conference in Queensland, Howard Charney, Cisco Systems senior vice president, outlined a cycle he labelled the "three-Bs" of all technology revolutions: "Boom, bust, build-out.

"Reality tells us that the so-called Internet bubble has burst. I don't believe it. In fact, I believe that the best of the Internet revolution is still ahead of us," he said.

Charney used the examples of other technology developments that ushered in the Industrial revolution - railroads, electricity and automobiles. In all three examples a period of initial "exuberance" that surrounded these technologies was followed by a period of "tough economic reality" before a third stage of build-out and growth. At the time of the greatest economic malaise in each of these industries there have been some major innovations such as the development in safety glass for the automobile industry, he said.

Charney applied this cycle to the Internet revolution and predicted that the Internet will move out of this bust.

He said innovation and pioneering in Internet-based technologies has continued to flourish.

"The bust period is where we are arguably at today with the Internet," Charney said.

"The global high-tech market is depressed and that's, well, depressing. But the current economic footfall belies what's really going on. If you look beyond the economic indicators, you see that there is still positive energy around the Internet and the Internet will lead us out of this bust."

* Siobhan Chapman travelled to Queensland as a guest of the organisers

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