Despite optimism for global telco revenues to bounce back in 2010, Australian telcos will experience only minimal growth, predicts one analyst firm.
According to research firm Ovum, global telecoms experienced “the worst growth in a decade” in 2009 with telco service provider revenues increasing by 2.2 per cent year-on-year, while total revenue in Australia grew by just 3.6 per cent.
Australian fixed line voice revenue fell 5.4 per cent in 2009, while mobile voice and mobile data revenue grew 1.1 per cent and 26.8 per cent respectively.
Ovum senior analyst, Nicole McCormick, said despite the global mobile sector returning to “healthy growth” in 2010, with forecasted growth of 6 per cent, local telcos will see only 1.7 per cent growth and predicts mobile voice revenues will decline for the first time in 2010.
Australian telco revenues are predicted to grow 6 per cent between 2008 and 2014.
“The minimal increase in telecom revenue in 2009 in Australia was due to underlying trends, such as declining fixed line revenue, that continued to manifest,” McCormick said in a statement. “As a result, improved global macro conditions won't help things much in 2010 as voice revenue is still expected to dip in both the fixed line and mobile worlds.”
The figures show that fixed line services will continue to decline, however fibre connections for broadband services will be increasingly important for telcos, according to the analyst.
The number of fixed lines across the globe will fall from one billion in 2010, to 871 million by 2014, while fixed line services revenues will also fall from around $US350 billion to $283 billion, for the same period.