The NBN Implementation Study numbers

And a few others that relate to the rollout of the National Broadband Network rollout

The NBN is a numbers game. Despite all the commentary around socio-economic benefits, innovation levels and other effects the fibre-to-the-premises (FTTP) network promises, most discussions remain focussed on the figures. So here are a few in the wake of the NBN Implementation Study’s release:

  • 84 - The McKinsey & Company and KPMG prepared report, The NBN Implementation Study, includes 84 recommendations for Government

  • 1.6 million – Communications minister, Senator Stephen Conroy, says extending fibre to 93 per cent of premises would potentially add another 1.6 million premises to the FTTP network, including 1.3 million new premises expected to be built by 2017-18.

  • 90% stop – The report says stopping at 90 per cent of premises getting fibre, would mean “fewer premises would receive fibre than currently can receive DSL broadband connections”.

  • 12Mbps – The peak speed next generation wireless and satellite services will deliver. The report goes on to say “satellite services will deliver average data rates which are more than 20 times higher than most users of these technologies experience today and much higher than average DSL usage today”

  • 94 to 97 – The report recommends satellite and wireless from the 94 to 97 per cent range of premises and satellite-only from 98 per cent

  • The peak investment required by Government is estimated at $26 billion by the end of year 7, of which $18.3 billion will be required over the next four years;
  • The new fibre infrastructure covering 90+ percent of premises will be long-lived and will redefine the current industry structure, superseding the copper network that has been in place for over 50 years in many places. The fibre laid over the next decade will be in place for possibly as long again.

  • $25 – Wholesale prices could sit at $25 to $30 a month for a basic broadband service at 20Mbps and $30 to $35 per month for basic broadband 20Mbps plus voice service.
  • 140 – The study involved talking to 140 industry stakeholders and took seven months
  • $4.7 billion – This figure is already allocated from last year’s budget with a substantial but undisclosed figure understood to be ready in reserve, according the Finance minister, Lindsay Tanner.

  • 55% - Conroy expects 55 per cent of the fibre to be hung overhead and 45 per cent in trenches

  • The NBN plan as it now stands is 12 months old (well, now almost 13)

  • It cost $30 million for the original FTTN tender

  • The study states: “Up to 250,000 kilometres of access network and backhaul fibre must be buried or strung overhead, along most roads across the country. Up to 5,000 customer visits per workday could be required over the 8-year roll-out.”

  • . x1000 – Fibre can already carry 1000 times the traffic of the government’s 100Mbps objective. It also has a lifespan of 40 years or more

  • 70% - Civil works will account for roughly 70 per cent of the construction cost of the access “with relatively low ongoing costs”.

  • 12 million – The number of premises will rise from 10.7 million today to 12 million by 2018

  • 140,000km – The report sates: “Telstra has an estimated 100,000 to 140,000 km of underground ducts that NBN Co could potentially use to deploy its fibre. Where there is room in those ducts (estimates range from 50 to 80 percent) it is a win-win for NBN Co to pay a reasonable charge to use them”.

  • 300 – Telstra has 300 exchanges that server about 2 million premises that don’t have competitive DSL equipment installed even though it is possible.

  • 75% - The study notes: “Once the network is built and the business is mature, NBN Co is expected to generate substantial free cash flows and margins, with an EBITDA margin in the vicinity of 75 percent”

  • 15 years – The government will need to pay up to $26 billion to NBN Co for the first six years. After that the company should be able to attract “investment-grade commercial debt”. If it optimises this debt it should be able to pay back up to $20 billion within 15 years.

  • Top 20 – NBN Co is expected to have a value of $40 billion within 15 years and be among the top 20 companies listed on the ASX

  • 15% - The report advises NBN Co customers should only be able to own up to 15 per cent of NBN Co

Read the full study.

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