"We see Unix coming under increasing attack," Gartner's Butler says. "And frankly, we don't believe there is any way that Unix is likely to truly grow in the future. In other words, it has seen its best days."
But with the number of legacy Unix systems huge -- IDC pegged it at 3.5 million last year -- enterprise buyers should not expect their Unix vendors to forsake them anytime soon, analysts say. What they can expect, however, is an interesting year as the vendors figure out the best approach to shoring up their Unix businesses. In the past, most vendors had a similar message and strategy and the market hinged on straightforward performance, analysts say.
"But we're getting into a maturing market where all of the players have solid equipment, solid operating systems and good [independent software vendor] support, so the differentiator here now isn't speeds and feeds so much, it's business value and what kind of business value customers can get out of their Unix systems," says Dan Olds, principal at Gabriel Consulting Group.
Sun is a prime example. By opening its Solaris operating system to a variety of vendor platforms, it is hoping the business value of the operating system alone will outweigh the draw of Linux or Windows even as customers move to lower-priced hardware.
"The way the industry has dealt with Unix in the past has been to look at it as a system, so you look at Solaris and Sun hardware and it's all packaged together," says Tom Goguen, vice president of the software group at Sun. "From our perspective, that's a very old view of what the industry is all about."
In addition to providing support for Solaris on x86 hardware, Sun open sourced the Solaris 10 code in January 2005 and says that more than 6.5 million licenses have been downloaded since then.
"Key to [re-invigorating Solaris] is we didn't restrict the operating system to our hardware or Sparc hardware," Goguen says. "We had to change our business model and we did: we made the product free and broadly available."
The challenge for Sun will be attracting new customers -- as well as ISVs -- away from Windows and Linux, especially now that Web-based applications are written in operating system-agnostic languages such as Java and .Net.
"What I see Sun doing is reawakening ISV interest in Solaris. But ISVs are not going to abandon their commitment to Windows and Linux for Tier 1 versions of their products," Gartner's Butler says. "What Sun can hope for is to put Solaris in a position that is higher priority than AIX or HP-UX."
HP and IBM, meanwhile, have solid Linux and Windows businesses to fall back on but aren't sitting still when it comes to the Unix market.
HP, for example, late last year added security updates to HP-UX 11i, integrating encryption capabilities directly into the operating system and has plans to enhance automation and management within virtual environments when it releases HP-UX 11i version 3 early this year.
IBM also is focusing on virtualization and security. Power6 and AIX 5.4, both due this year, will provide better utilization rates in virtualized environments by enabling users to move running partitions among servers. In addition, the new release of AIX, due mid-year, will add security features such as encrypted file systems and the ability to patch a running operating system, says Karl Freund, vice president of marketing for IBM System P.
"In 2007, enterprise buyers can expect the vendors to keep pushing the bar up in terms of business value, manageability, utilization and getting more bang for the buck when it comes to Unix systems," Gabriel Consulting's Olds says. "While it's not getting any easier to be a Unix vendor, I don't see any of the vendors dropping out any time soon. If anything, it's going to become more of a dogfight."