When IT professionals have looked at the possibilities of computing, a number of observations have been made because their underlying truths were so obvious, painful or accurate. This special QuickStudy presents a few of these better-known "laws." In the companion story (at right), we group many other laws based on the area of computing or type of user they affect. Though one may laugh at most of these observations, the humor in each is derived from a painful kernel of truth.
- Moore's Law - In 1965, Gordon Moore, at the time a researcher at Fairchild Semiconductor and later a co-founder of Intel Corp., speculated on the future of the microchip. Moore said he expected that the number of transistors per processor would double every 18 months. This prediction has proved remarkably accurate for nearly 40 years and has come to be known as Moore's Law. It is sometimes expressed in a slightly different form nowadays: Computing power doubles every 18 months.
Last year, Moore suggested that his law will run up against the laws of physics in 2017. A major factor is the limits of optical lithography. "We use light to print the patterns of circuits, and we're reaching a point where the wavelengths are getting into a range where you can't build lenses anymore," Moore said.
In 2007, Intel expects to produce chips using a 0.045-micron process with a gate oxide layer only three atoms thick. It's hard to imagine many more doublings from there, even with further innovation in insulating materials.
Moore's optimistic rule of thumb is complemented by a law of despair. In his classic book The Mythical Man-Month, IBM project manager Frederick P. Brooks stated that adding programmers to a late project could only make the project later. He formalized this observation in a formula that we now know as:
- Brooks' Law - The complexity and communication costs of a project rise with the square of the number of developers, while the work done rises only linearly, at best.
For decades, Moore's law has rescued computer projects that were threatened by Brooks' Law. However, the success of Linux and other open-source software projects suggests that there may be a loophole in Brooks' Law:
- Linus' Law - "Given enough eyeballs, all bugs are shallow," according to Linux creator Linus Torvalds.
The sheer size of Linux's distributed development team means that somewhere there is someone who can glance at a module and detect an error that other programmers find elusive. Somewhere there is a programmer for whom fixing such a bug is a simple matter. The more developers there are on the project, the more likely it is that the team will include these programmers. Given enough developers, the existence of one who is exactly the right fellow for the job also approaches certainty.
- Murphy's Law - Anything that can go wrong will - usually in the worst possible way.
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Computerworld Live Podcast #97: The Future of Enterprise Networking 25/07/2008 09:45:36
This week CW Live chats with Mark Thompson, global sales and marketing manager for HP ProCurve, on the future of the enterprise networking. Mark discusses the trends we can expect to see in the near future and how the right infrastructure can ensure your enterprise network is secure. - +
Computerworld Live Podcast #96: Security at the Edge 11/06/2008 09:22:22
CW Live speaks with Amol Mitra, HP ProCurve Director of Marketing for Asia Pacific and Japan. Today's topic: how enterprises are starting to shift away from simply controlling security via server logins, firewalls and moving to more adaptive security frameworks. - +
Data Management Edition #10: Multi-Petascale Systems 02/05/2008 09:12:33
This week we look at sustainability and the development of multicore technologies to build multi-petascale systems. - +
IT Security Edition #11: How to poison the Storm botnet 01/05/2008 08:51:55
This week CW Live presents a case study on how to poison the notorious Storm botnet . Plus we take a look at Cisco's plans for Ironport. - +
IT Security Edition #10: Cyber-battles fought and won 24/04/2008 11:09:47
Vendors bow to end user pressure to improve product security, and we take a look at the latest concepts shaping the cyber-battlefield of the future.
Informatica Powercenter added to Nec Infoframe Solution Suite 2008-12-03 11:36:00+11
Gerald Held joins Informatica’s Board of Directors 2008-12-03 09:50:00+11
Sterling Commerce Speeds Long-Distance Delivery of Large Files 2008-12-03 09:28:00+11
FrontRange Solutions launches HEAT Plus Mobile to reduce help desk costs and improve service management productivity 2008-12-02 15:15:00+11
AARNet Helps to Advance Indigenous Health 2008-12-02 12:44:00+11
Achieving the impossible: Unlimited application scalability
Learn how provide applications with significantly higher throughput and lower latency for data operations while retaining the appropriate levels of data quality with clustered caching. Read on to improve your application scalability now.












