What is the future for the NBN under the Coalition?

As the Coalition reportedly prepares to release details of its alternative National Broadband Network plan, what is at stake for the network if Labor loses the election?

NBN Co has a 10-year plan for Australia’s high-speed broadband future, but a change in government after September’s federal election – with the latest Newspoll showing the Coalition with a lead of 52 per cent to Labor’s 48 per cent on a two-party preferred basis – has created uncertainty about the project’s future.

Shadow broadband minister Malcolm Turnbull has made it clear he plans to do things differently with the National Broadband Network (NBN), which is Australia’s largest ever public infrastructure project.

NBN Co has also thrown the doors open to a potential change in the roll out of the network, with NBN Co CEO Mike Quigley recently calling for a study from the Communications Alliance to decide what is the best technology to use to roll it out.

However, little is know about the Coalition's NBN policy other than it would employ fibre-to-the-node (FTTN) for large parts of the network, rolling out fibre to cabinets in the street and using copper for ‘last mile’ connection from the cabinet to premises.

The shadow minister has said that fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) would still be rolled out to new housing estates (greenfields developments).

This compares to the Federal Government's roll out of the NBN utilising FTTH, which delivers fibre to the doorstop of premises, for 93 per cent of Australia.

Turnbull has also said he would retain Telstra and Optus’ HFC networks, which are based on a combination of copper and optical fibre, in order to remove “barriers to competition” with the NBN.

If the Coalition wins the election it won’t be the first time an incoming government has been tasked with completing an already in-progress infrastructure project, and Nick Economou, senior lecturer in politics and social inquiry at Monash University, said there may be limits to how much a new government could change the direction of the NBN.

One example is the construction of a desalination plant in Victoria, which was announced by John Brumby’s Labor government in late 2007 and includes a 30-year contract with the AquaSure consortium.

The Liberal Party's Ted Baillieu became premier in Victoria at the end of 2010 and said the Liberal government was stuck “with a very expensive white elephant” because it would have cost too much to extricate itself from the project’s contracts.

“The opposition went bananas over [the desalination plant] and pilloried it every waking moment of their existence. But upon coming to government, when confronted with the cost of extracting itself from all those contracts, it said ‘no, no, we’re more or less tied in’,” Economou said.

He expects the same will happen with the NBN if the Coalition wins the election.

“I wouldn’t be at all surprised if there were only minor alterations to the direction of NBN policy after the election [under the Coalition],” he said.

However, independent MP Rob Oakeshott has said it is still possible for the NBN plan to be changed, but “the worst thing that could happen now is a complete change of direction”.

NBN Co’s future under the Coalition

Economou said it is possible that Turnbull might try to dismantle NBN Co and create a new organisation in its place.

The shadow minister has been a staunch critic of the NBN wholesaler, blaming the company for not having a “transparent approach to information” and making it difficult for the Coalition to carry out a costed analysis of its alternative NBN plan.

“It’s a statutory authority,” Economou said. “Now of course statutory authorities have a certain degree of autonomy from ministers, so what presumably the Coalition government will do is they will go back to the enabling legislation, redraft it, alter its charter of operation and I dare say it will then move to get rid of whoever’s running it at the moment.”

In order to replace NBN Co, a Coalition government would need to pass new legislation.

“If the Coalition did not control the Senate, this could prove to be tricky,” Economou said.

What will a Coalition NBN look like?

In 2010 the Coalition said it would demolish the NBN. Since then, the Coalition has changed its tack, indicating it won’t demolish the network but roll it out faster and cheaper.

Turnbull recently stated the Coalition would honour existing NBN contracts, which include the $11 billion Telstra contract and the $800 million Optus agreement and suggested it might introduce a plan where users could pay to have fibre extended to their premises.

However, rolling out FTTN instead of FTTH would require altering existing contracts, something which Telstra’s CEO, David Thodey, told the Australian is out of the question if the contract’s dollar figure is changed.

While speeds up to 100Mbps are achievable on the FTTH NBN, Turnbull has said most people would be able to achieve speeds of 50Mbps on a FTTN-based network, while those farthest away from the node will experience speeds of 25Mbps and a third of people will achieve speeds of 80Mbps.

This assumption is based on the experience in the UK, Turnbull has said, and he has refused to confirm what speeds Australian consumers would be able to access under the Coalition’s NBN.

Turnbull also has refused to provide figures on how much sooner or cheaper the Coalition would be able to roll out the NBN, telling ABC Radio’s AM program it is unable to produce a costed analysis of its NBN plan as it is unaware of the “extent to which [NBN Co] have made commitments”.

Regardless of what road the Coalition takes, Economou said it will have several challenges ahead.

“On one hand there will be the principles that they set out when in opposition about the need to find a more cost-effective way of doing things,” he said.

“On the other hand I think they’ll be under enormous pressure from rural constituents, who are usually quite strong supporters of the Coalition, to go ahead with the aspects of the broadband rollout.”

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