Budde barney over NBN blowout
- 30 July, 2010 15:29
- Comments 44
Telecommunications analyst, Paul Budde, has slammed comments by a rival consultant that the National Broadband Network (NBN) could cost in excess of $80 billion.
The NBN will make available Internet access speeds in excess of 100 megabits per second (Mbps) to 93 per cent of premises in the country using fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) technology with a maximum cost of $43 billion, buoyed by some $26 billion of taxpayer funds.
Budde, a pro-NBN industry analyst, said the suggestions were “idiotic”, and questioned the motivations of the consultant, Malcolm McKenzie, who made the remarks to ABC Radio National's Background Briefing program today.
ABC News listed McKenzie as an “experienced industry consultant and project manager”.
"I would say for any project this size, [a cost blowout of] 50 per cent to 100 per cent would not be unrealistic," McKenzie told ABC News.
Budde said the claims are overblown and appear politically-motivated.
“There are plenty of people in the ATUG (Australian Telecommunications User Group) and the AIIA (Australian Internet Industry Alliance) who know what they are talking about,” Budde said.
“I have never heard of the good-guy McKenzie. He comes out of the blue [and says that] Australia companies start a project that is prone by storms and floods and bushfires but no, they are so incredibly stupid that they don’t take that into account.
"Those [companies'] plans are contingencies. They have built roads and railways for hundreds of years.”
Communications minister, Stephen Conroy, told media at a press conference announcing the footprint plans of the NBN that the project was on schedule regardless of weather or other external factors. He also told Sky News reporter, David Speers, that telco analysts were estimating the project would come $6 to 8 billion under budget.
Budde expects to see some hitches in the massive network build, but said it would likely be under than over budget.
Computerworld Australia has contacted McKenzie for comment.
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Comments
D Newman
considering the Tassie rollout was not only under budget but was completed very slightly ahead of plan, and that was test build phase, I am happy looking at the project in the Tassie mircobuild sense to go with a on budget prediction.
I worked for IBM in Nottingham UK, and can safely say their project management is terrible, just research the debarcle of the IBM 'Boots" contract, and why Glaxxo/kline told them to shove off and tore up the contract.
So I,m not giving much credence to this persons views at this time( edging bet somewhat)
Canberra Watcher
The Tassie rollout was under budget and ahead of time?
How many Tasmanians have access to NBN services right now? Close enough to NONE.
RS
Apparently, according to government claims they have in just 3 months, 50% already signed up.
Now just how many of that 50% have acces now?
But I see you have revised yourprevious figures from 3 to zero, lol!
Yes, but, but... 3 is close to 0!
D Newman
LOL Canberra Watcher is back, hey long time no see, how are you.?.........
I m sarkastisch, ich weiß, wer es wirklich ist
Waz
Hey Canberra Watcher your membership card to the Liberal Party is in the POST. Also thanks for donating to our campaign...
Daniel
The Coalition, The Nats still don't have a policy when it comes to dealing with Undeserved, RIM-Fested Copper Infested Nation of ours, yet they continue to attack Labor's Proposal ? FFS.
When is Barney and friends gonna release their Policies FFS.
Francis
Daniel, the National Party released its pro-fibre policy ages ago (see nationals.org.au under Policies, then 2010 Election Platform). It advocates a priority fibre rollout to regional Australia, but yes, we still await the Libs saying anything about the actual NBN technology - all they have said to date is that Labor wastes a lot of money.
Daniel
Francis, the problem is that The National Party rely on The Coalition for votes, there is no point in having a Policy that is not accepted or endorsed by those who give preferences to.
And that is my point Francis, they attack the Labor for wasting money, but have no proof to date or an alternative to back up their claim.
We've been told time and time again by Coalition that they will have a policy when there is an election, now there is an election, and have been for about a week, we still yet to here nothing at all about the policy, or any policies related to tech/telco/ISP Industry at all.
And on top of this we have this "Malcolm McKenzie" articles saying it's gonna cost blowout, but again we see a lack of Policy alternatives from this Consultant as well.
I think the Tech and Telco Industry is getting fed up with all these sorts of claims and promises by Consultants and Politicians and just get on with the job.
12 odd years with the Liberals and no action at all.
comrade
Who dumped the previous OPEL national broadband contracts? Labor.
If the NBN is going to be commercially successful, then who is buying bonds into it? No one.
Who is implementing an internet censorship filter & permanent data logging all of our website visits. Labor.
D Newman
OPEL was dumped because it wasnt fit for purpose, it was at best a bandaid, it was an awful design, it was limiting, and sole purpose was to shut the chattering masses up, and get Telstra,s even back then life ex copper replacement sorted, as Telstra had openly refused to replace it, and all this was said 10 years ago.
the whole reason the NBN was brought into being to start with, as well as OPEL was Telstra,s refusal to replace the copper network, this caused no end of trouble, and still is to the average Australian, even living in big cities, the service from this life-ex network is patchy at best.
As for Conroy, he will not last post election no matter the result.
Daniel
comrade:
OPEL wasn't a national broadband Network, it was a patch work (like Broadband Guarantee),
Who sold Telstra ? Liberals.
ISP Filtering is the ACL (Australian Christian Lobby) idea.
It was actually started back when Liberals were in with Senator Alston.
e.g.
http://www.efa.org.au/Publish/PR990730.html
So yes, while labor restarted the whole debate on Filtering, Liberals also never stated they don't support ISP Filtering.
Please do some research on the history of ISP Filtering.
You can try and put the blame on Labor, but the facts are FACTS.
Adding the ISP Filtering to debate, archives nothing, and only shows your hatred for Labor for implementing ISP Filtering when they were being influenced by a 3rd Party that has more voice than we do.
Here are the facts on Broadband.
1. Liberals sold off Telstra to solve the debt problem that Labor introduced, and while that played a part in doing stuff infrastructure wise, it could still ALOT more by regulation and deals in the Infrastructure Industry, for example, in return for Separation, the Government could have created a company like what Labor done, called USO Co, to handle USO, so that Telstra didn't have have to.
2. Liberals did nothing to allow further increase Network Competition (DSLAM's, Separation of Telstra, Allow 3rd Party to Access Ducts or CAN to install their own Fixed Line, etc), allow new technology to bused (it had to be rectified).
3. OPEL was only drawn up towards the end of Liberals Reign, thus you can blame Liberals for leaving it too late.
Liberals had 12 odd years to think up something and DO something, but did not.
RS
Our old friend Raymond has again disappeared and as usual in his absence, others have magically appeared to fight for the the cause, in an identical fashion...OMG!
Wow, lool... Canberra Watcher and Comrade are now here, sounding more like Raymond than Raymond.
All that's missing now is Legal Eagle and we'll have the trifecta of Raymond clones... who aren't Raymond of course.
No... they all work for Raymond and his mega $ empire, LOL!!!!!!!
mtz
With FREE installation the take up rate is only 50%. Is NBN going to install it for free to to the rest of the country as well ? Not that I care, I stopped using copper years ago and am now on wireless so I won't allow them to dig up my concrete driveway to install fibre for some overpriced services .
Daniel
mtz, for someone using supposed Wireless, you seem ad to your arguement on increased pricing?
for people tend to argue the NBN at every length tend to forget that pricing is controlled by ACCC.
comrade
@ Daniel & D Newman,
The Libs had a good plan that was commercially viable in OPEL with very little use of tax payer dollars. Labor dropped it. Why? Perhaps their union mates weren't getting any kick-backs?
Had the OPEL contracts been honored, then today more "hard working Australian families" would have more access to higher internet bandwidth.
The fact remains that there simply is no financially viable reason for "residential fibre" use speeds. If there was, then Telstra would've long ago (& not just recently) moved their cable network to DOCSIS 3.0 speeds (upto 1 Gbps - as is done in Portugal & Hong Kong etc).
Please stop complaining about Telstra. Today they have some of the cheapest ADSL plans ($70 for 200 GB) - second to TPG ($80 unlimited business).
BTW, 12 years ago I was preparing for cable internet over Foxtel/Telstra @ 64kbps. ADSL (DSLAM enabled exchanges), I believe were very sparsely available (if at all). Today I have access to ADSL2+, Cable @ 30 Mbps (soon 100 Mbps), Wireless @ 21 Mbps (soon 42 Mbps) & Satellite of 4 Mbps.
This proves beyond any doubt - whatsoever, that Australia has always remained in a good international standing position when it comes to national broadband. Period.
One final point, it is Labor that wants to filter & data log your internet access, not the Libs.
nonny-moose
er no. it wasnt viable as the wimax tech slated for OPEL would have struggled to make the benchmark set for the program - 12 Mbit service. IIRC it was real world capable of 6-9 mbits. and if you call 900 million "very little" taxpayer dollars i have a bridge in Sydney to sell you. no its not anywhere near the NBN expenditure but for a patchwork blackspots program, its quite a significant sum to spend to not even achieve the stated 12Mbit aim.
i do agree tho rural residents would have had *some* relief by now had the program been left in play.
but i would dispute the 'prove without any doubt' part. a sample size of one is not a metric worth anything as far as 'proof' goes. just because your personal position is top of the tree as far as Australia is concerned doesnt mean everyone else has access to the same standard....
BTW have you ever actually achieved 21mbit wireless? im curious if youve ever come anywhere near the theoretical max of that service. i fully expect the 42 mbt service is even less likely to achieve anywhere near its rated speed either.
on the filter, thats easy to deal with. use a VPN/proxy and be done with it. i personally wouldnt be surprised to hear the Libs support some kind of data directive though - like the filter thats one area of lib policy that seems to be a policy free zone.
D Newman
Yet again 'Comrade gestalt' you have glossed over one area of history which is the life ex and sub standard areas of supply by the copper infrastruture, an area Telstra have refused to replace, instead they wanted all services run on wireless.
This is the core issue, this is what made both the Liberals and Labour first get worried over infrastructure, the NBN is just the pinnacle of an arguement thats been occuring between Telstra and various governments for the last 10 years.
The second point your missing is they have to replace the copper anyway to give more Australias either A/ better ADSL2+ speeds or give some Australians even in major cities ADSL2 at all.
The costing of the copper is not being discussed, its being kept off the books, why do you think that is Comrade, because it would mean rebuilding Telstra for Telstra, and the stink that would kick up is far greater, than any small arguement over broadband...And yes it is small in its effect on the election.
Last point 'a good international standing position' (quote comrade), just proves your entire argument to be FUD B/S
zag
Of course it'll blow out, it's the Government.
The school building are supposed to be made within 3 months the building down the road from me has taken over a year to build.
The problem with fibre is it'll cost the rest between $3000+ to $10,000+ to get the cable laid it won;t be free or how else is the government going to get it's 50+ billion back within 8 years some experts are saying a couple of years, even the current connection plans aren't the correct pricing they have to go up yet.
Then you'll have the councils saying you can't install fibre until you pay for land rent and pay a build fee before you can install, the same thing happened to Cable TV even when it was in the ground above ground and people complained that they couldn't see the sky properly with the other 10 cables strung up on poles.
anyone who doesn't expect this to blow out is living in fantasy land.
Barbar
McKenzie? gee, I thought IBM project management was staffed by a bunch of Indian wannabes.
Sydney Lawrence
We all want 100% fibre broadband just like we all want a personal luxury jet but unfortunately life doesn't quite work like that. The greedy simply say build it an to hell with the poor Australian taxpayer that will be saddled with the financial millstone around their neck for the next decade or two.
The United States, the worlds most advanced country, has only 6% of population serviced with Fibre. At this time we simply cannot afford this luxury. I think it is best that Abbott consults Telstra for their opinion as to the best method of a cheaper delivery of fast Broadband for Australians.
It appears likely that Tony Abbott will win the coming election and his intention is to cancel the NBN so it is very important for him to quickly reveal his plan in this area. For those who question the possible NBN cost overrun should look for example at the cost blowout for the Sydney Opera House.
RS
@18 Zag
It has always been up to $43b but you (and your suspicious twin kj who commented elsewhere on CW) both say $50b+ and $53b. Where did you pluck thes figure from? Why the FUD and lies?
So...some reading material to help educate you, regarding some of the most recent financial projections, by analysts and people involved in the NBN.
Admittedly it's guess work, but guess work from a foundation, unlike your pessimistic and possibly politically motivated, "stab in the dark"...!
http://www.zdnet.com.au/43bn-nbn-not-so-back-of-the-envelope-339302911.htm
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/business/a/-/tech/7655521/nbn-co-boss-claims-network-costs-fluid/
jay
You don't have to be a genius to work out that government projects ALWAYS go over budget by at least 200%.
Q. How can a supposedly reputable consultant get this so wrong? A. Consultants are famous of under-quoting to get their project approved.
Can anybody give any example where a similar government run project has come in on time and under budget?
Sydney Lawrence
Late news. An Architect/Builder friend just called with facts on the Sydney Opera House with figures as follows.
The Sydney Opera House was completed ten years late and at more than 14 times over budget. Build quote $7 million dollars. Actual finished cost 102 million dollars. Nuf said.
RS
@#20. Sydney you still haven't learned have you? And again more contradictions.
When the NBN deal with Telstra was first announced and your precious Telstra shares jumped you said, the NBN deal may be best for us all afterall. But now...
You speak via your Telstra shares and nothing else, but refuse to understand that the best thing for your shares is certainty.
If Tony Abbott wins Telstra will again (as they have been pre-election) in limbo without a clear path and the stock may suffer further, unless a quick assurance is given.
Your motto seems to be vote 1 Tony Abbott and "hope" he helps my TLS shares...
But as suggested they have signalled a probable rehash of OPEL, the deal with Optus/Elders, you and your active Telstra supporter mates at NWAT fought against and voted against Howard, because of, LOL!!!!!
Ooh btw too, you typically never answered my question (refer comment #12) here either -
http://www.zdnet.com.au/nsw-changes-planning-rules-for-nbn-339304603.htm#comments
Sydney Lawrence
Dear RS, please be advised that your kind offer of advice is accepted and indeed greatly appreciated.
However, I do respectfully submit (for your perusal) the fact that, and I have conveyed this truth to you many times, I am NOT swayed in any way as to my opinion of NBN by my small shareholding of Telstra shares.
While it is true that I have expressed opposition to the vile blackmail that Telstra has suffered (encouraged by Telstra opponents) my hope that Abbott and Telstra will explore avenues other than the required up to 43 billion dollar NBN to provide Australians with fast Broadband.
RockJumper
I'm not sure what take-up rate they expected in Tassie. But if it was more than the 'actual' take up rate, then YES it would be reasonable to expect it to cost less money and take less time to complete... because they did LESS work !
Now if they are going to adopt an opt-out model, the take-up rate will be close to 100% (including those installed but never used). Did they factor the increased time to install to 100% of homes into their budget and timing and human resource requirements?
As human resources (fiber installers / licenced cabelers / tradies) become scarce the hourly rate for these guys goes up... as demonstrated in the cost to build a school classroom or hall just did. Tell them it's government money paying for it and the cost goes up again... no tradies discount for cash on this cash-cow of a project.
RS
@25 Since you ahve laid the foundation Syd, lets run with it, eh. Let's calculate your "small shareholding"...
70 000 TLS shares (as you proudly quoted in your interview on NWAT - so please don't claim you do not have behind the scenes contact with TE/NWAT). All bought around T2.
Outlay: 70 000 x $7.40 = $518,000.00
Current value: 70 000 x $3.26 = $228,200.00
Current losses = $289, 800
No wonder you're so frantically contradictory...!
Now how about that answer here, which you conveniently ignored A G A I N -
http://www.zdnet.com.au/nsw-changes-planning-rules-for-nbn-339304603.htm#comments
Sydney Lawrence
RS why do you always bring your debate down to the low common denominator of money. Everything is relative RS and it is a fact that what is a large amount of money to you may not be so classed by others. As an example a person may regard a 30 metre cruiser as adequate to requirements but would only be a runabout for a Middle East oil Sheik.
Where I do agree with you is the Australian Government must be careful with the expenditure of up to $43 billion (and possible a great deal more) of public money. The advantages of the proposed NBN have been greatly exaggerated for the purpose of those who are desirous to have it built.
I will answer your question, as I have always answered your questions, when I have time to visit ZDNet to establish what the question was. With Julia Gillard being rejected by the Australian people the Abbott policy on the NBN is eagerly awaited. Best wishes, as always. Syd.
D Newman
LOL there is a few weeks yet for both sides to put their foots in it, it isnt a done race yet.
Waiting for Barnaby Joyce, Conroy,Abbott, Joe Hockey oh what the heck, 70% of present ministers to say something or do something stupid.
As are a very large number of swing voters.
MY money is on Conroy to talk about Portals again and get theaten by legal action by Valve, for bringing their company name down.
Abbott to go off on one about abortion or something.
Barneby Joyce just needs a camera and to open his mouth.
Joe to do some math will live, and get it wrong.
Julia just has to wave her hands around some more.
The NBN will just languish around as the red haired freckled buck tooth child of the election.
You know its there, you dont want to admit responsibility , and you wonder how much its going to cost to raise the bas'tard.
RS
@27. Because the lowest common demominator is where it all starts Syd. It also demonstrates your complete bias and why you say things like Saint Telstra and God Bless Telstra.
All "you" talk about is $. The cost of the NBN, the impact on TLS shares. Even at Telstra Exchange, you lambasted a lady named Jacinta and sided with multi-billion dollar Telstra (your company) because she couldn't afford to pay her bill, but ended up doing so on the due date, only to still have her phone disconnected.
You went out of your way and "found time", to write to TE to criticise Jacinta and support Telstra - disgraceful, imho... But yet you are still unable to find time to answer your lies and they are lies Syd.
You said on the 20th July - you have never had any problems with your posts to TE. But I found 20 April on TE where you said your post had been removed from TE and were complaining...
Both comments cannot be true Syd which makes you a? Hint starts with L and ends with iar!
You have shown complete disregard for all Australians, except those like you, TLS shareholders and will change not only your comments from one extreme to the other, but also your voting habits, to whoever offers the most TLS pieces of silver. Rudd last time, Abbott this time.
And that is a blatant lie Sydney. My estimate is you answer at best 1 in every 3 questions. Where as I can say without fear I have "always answered yours".
Let's see if you have any ticker this time and admit to your lies re: 20 July/20 April?
RS
Woops @28
gnome
And now for something completely different, OWKA back on topic.
Paul Budde is one of the most respected and knowledgeable commentators on the industry. His views are much more likely to be correct than those of people who are not directly involved in the industry and who may have one or more axes to grind.
PS - please don't feed the troll(s), as they are feral and may react erratically, although very predictably.
Sydney Lawrence
Erratically and predictably???? just don't catch your drift gnome.
RS while I may disagree with your opinions I will fight fiercely to defend your right to state them. In other words we all have an opinion and we all have the wonderful gift of free speech.
RS
Yes lovely Syd...
Now to not deflect the issue, back to the lack of ticker or to answer those lies of yours?
Comrade
With the latest polls in favour of the Libs, only 2 weeks to go until both the NBN $80b+ white elephant & the internet filter/data logging is dropped.
I'm very certain that the rebirth of OPEL will serve us well for many years ahead.
Sydney Lawrence
RS it is true and you are correct that I did write a letter to Telstra Exchange (which was published) by Telstra Exchange and I did complain that a previous letter I had written had not been placed for public display on Exchange. I was quickly and kindly informed by Telstra that my letter was indeed published and on display but simply I was looking at the wrong section of Exchange, which you would know RS being one of the most prolific contributors to the Exchange and would, I think, hold the record of having the most correspondence published there, is a very expansive Site. I hope to see Tony Abbott in Brisbane today and will ask him about his intention for the NBN and the Internet censorship filter.
RS
Sydney, that actually sounds feasible, so fair enough...
But how did NWAT let you know that the information was actually published, Syd, as their explanation wasn't published on TE?
They didn’t contact you directly, with behind the scenes contact, like that you have previously denied, did they?
Sydney Lawrence
RS, no drama, no intrigue a pure and simple truthful answer. Telstra Exchange sent me an E-Mail to answer my question which is what you would expect from the Nations leading E-Mail provider. You got a problem with that RS?
RS
Sydney, it was all nice and benefit of the doubt, until that typical, smart ***ed last sentence. So again, since YOU asked...
If you had have received an email stating that your comment was indeed published, knowing your track record of complete Telstra grovelling, you would have forwarded the most syrupy, disgraceful, sycophantic reply begging the icon Saint Telstra [sic] forgiveness for doubting them and you would have concluded with God Bless Telstra... but you didn't, so...
So again, since you asked, yes... I do have a problem with those incessant share driven lies of yours (don't ask if you don't want a truthful answer, LOL)!
Again, knowing your track record of blatant lies to support Telstra and subsequently those more precious than life itself TLS shares of yours, I don't think you know what a truthful answer is...
So tell me, as you swear to not have any clandestine, behind the scenes contact with Telstra or their biased, propagandist website NWAT/TE (LOL!!!!!!) just how did you each, contact each other for you to be interviewed on NWAT (at least) twice?
Telepathy? From the nations leading (taxpayer gifted, monopolistic) Telepathic provider!
Sydney Lawrence
RS, please believe me when I tell you that the last sentence of my recent Post was not meant to be hurtful or insulting to you. If you were in any way grieved or offended please accept my complete and utter apology.
Also, I am sure you will have taken note of my recent Posts on Telstra Exchange which were very critical ( in a constructive manner) of Telstra, and as you and David Thodey agree, improvements must, and are, being made for the better at Telstra.
RS
Sydney... there's no need for an apology, no matter how insincere, but thanks none-the-less.
A simple answer (which as usual was dodged) as to the "telepathy or otherwise used" for Telstra and you to contact each, to arrange interviews, would suffice...
RS
@#35.
Tell us again about the $80b NBN, LOL!!!!!
And if you are naive enough to believe the Libs who still WILL NOT say no to internet filtering, won't introduce one, well...
Some people eh!
Sydney Lawrence
RS, your suggestion that my apology was not sincere is hurtful but also a sad reflection on your ability to accept the honest good graces of others.
My claim that the NBN costs would blow out is based on the cost of every large construction project since Captain Cook. I do hope that Tony Abbott rejects the Internet censorship when he announces his Policy in Brisbane. I will certainly be there to heckle him if he does not.
RS
Fair enough Syd, my turn to apologise...
Me too, regarding Abbott.
Still no answer for me though? My you're a coy old bu**er aren't you?
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