Bandwidth demand to reach 1Gbps by 2020: NBN Co CEO
- 30 April, 2010 12:19
- Comments 24
NBN Co CEO, Mike Quigley says broadband speed demand will hit 1Gbps by 2020
Fixed bandwidth speed demands will reach one gigabit per second (Gbps) by 2020, according to NBN Co chief executive officer Mike Quigley.
Speaking to members of the Infrastructure Partnerships Australia group this week, Quigley showed a graph (PDF) which represented the transition between Internet bandwidth speeds from the early dial-up days to the foreseeable future. In it, Quigley showed that the company behind the Australia-wide fibre-to-the-home National Broadband Network believed demand for bandwidth would accelerate significantly over the next decade.
"The trend has been inexorably upwards," he told the infrastructure professionals group. "We need to build this infrastructure today for when we need it."
According to the company's fibre roll-out plans, the 100Mbps committed speed will be delivered to homes and businesses through a single fibre optic cable per Fibre Access Node delivering 2.5Gbps bandwidth over a single wavelength to surrounding homes. This connection speed is expected to reach 40Gbps over coming years as the company increases the number of wavelengths traveling over the fibre optic cable.
Quigley defended the network against detractors who didn't see the need for the 100Mbps committed speeds it will potentially bring. According the NBN Co head, the idea and requirement fssor today's average 10Mbps speeds during the days of early dial-up wasn't conceivable.
"If you think we shouldn't be building the network now, if you think it's a waste of money, that we don't need it, you're betting on the orange curve," he said, referring to a graph which showed Internet speeds leveling out at ADSL2+'s current peak speeds of 24Mbps over the next 15 years.
"There are many small businesses around the country that simply don't have high speed fibre optic access available to them at the moment," Quigley said at the information session.
While NBN Co has repeatedly affirmed that it will not sell retail-type services over its wholesale network, Quigley did say that the network would deliver technologies such as VLAN tunneling over fibre to small businesses.
Both the Federal opposition leader Tony Abbott and Shadows Communications minister Tony Smith have recently called for the NBN to be scrapped, which the Minister for Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy Stephen Conroy said would risk Australia's economic future.
The network roll-out was delayed recently for two weeks when workers received an electric shock from a poorly insulated power pole. Quigley said there have two serious incidents, with a total of six incident reports being filed.
"Safety is something we're taking deadly seriously in the company," he said.
The incidents highlighted the NBN Co's culture of "continuous improvement," an element Quigley hoped to continue as the company refined best practices over the eight year roll-out.
The National Broadband Network is currently being trialled at several sites in Tasmania, as well as five mainland pilot sites. In several public Network and Operations Information sessions held by NBN Co around Australia, the company detailed its fibre roll-out plans to 11 million homes, as well as plans to launch two satellites to serve 12Mbps wireless broadband to the remaining 10 per cent of Australian homes.
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Comments
Reality Check
Quigly is wrong, Bandwidth demand in the future will reach 10Gbs no wait 100 Gb/s no hang on I mean 1 Tb/s.
Stop the Madness. Stop foolishly trying to predict demand way off into the future.
Especially for really really important things like bandwidth !!
Especially when there is a huge industry ready to meet that demand
Especially when there are monolith company's like Google and other watching google who would do whatever is necessary to meet that demand as it serves their own business success.
And especially as current demand for minor things like schools and hospitals and water etc is far from being met today.
How about the govt fund some rural bandwidth and give the rest of us the $5k its going to cost per house to get fibre.
And we can continue to not use the ADSL 2+ that we have access to. Also the 100Mb/s we CURRENTLY have available to us on HFC. Until were ready . . . . in the future.
The NBN is not about technology or future market demand, it is politics and it is a phenomenal disgusting waste.
Nomadtales
@Reality Check. Wrong. No company can afford to roll out the infrastructure across the entire country. For want of comparison if all roads were private ventures you would never have National Hwy 1 circling the country. The NBN will circle the country so that it can be hooked into from any location. Just look at the fibre link they are running between Mt Isa and Darwin. Telstra & co would never have done that.
Ton Courtney
The NBN will become one of the nation’s greatest assets when it is built. It is not just about faster internet, but about all future communications and other potential uses that haven't even been thought about yet.
Having the infrastructure to support these future technologies will become a huge corner stone for Australia’s economic future, develop jobs and lead to more innovation.
The point about the conceived speeds when dial up was about is totally valid. To blatantly say that get a reality check just implies short-sightedness.
Hyding
As one that is very up for a bit of bashing for terrible government policy, this is not one of the times that I can bash for the intent of the solution. The concept behind the NBN is outstanding and truly is one of the best concepts that teh ALP brought to the table.
My concern over the NBN is simple, construction costs, my concern on this is simple. The process for the awarding of the build contracts is very similar to the "building the education revolution".
There are probably about 5 serious infrastructure players in Australia that can do this, of which 3 of them are owned by one company. These companies are effectively massive project management houses with labour hire companies as part of teh process. This means that mark up of the projects is going to be huge, if you are talking $43Billon dollar project, with lets conservatively say a 10% mark up for project management and staff management, that is $4.3Billion which is equivalent of 43000 people at $100K for a year to manage the project. This is very simple maths, but it seems like a HUGE amount of people to manage this project, maybe the government can find a much more efficient way of managing this project. Might not help the big employers of the trade unions however now would it.
Andrew Brierley
1gb 10gb who cares! All I know is that I have a 1500mb connection with People Telecom and at best I can only ever achieve 380mb in Dapto, just give me half reasonable ADSL2+ at a sensible price please!
There is a Telstra ADSL2+ connection available at stupid prices compared to those in Wollongong or Sydney.
Daniel Joe Average
I don't know about what business's want but I do know what I want. although wireless a great idea, I think I would only really use it for my 3GS phone or laptop. nothing beats being hardwired into the system at home, so as far as fibre vs adsl I don't care. All I care about is the "Faster the Better" at a reasonable price.......
lorro
I am currently demanding 1Gbps internet and have the LAN at home to support 1Gbps, I want 1Gbps download and upload, so the demand is now not in 2020, 2020 it will be 1Tbps.
I had to go buy a server in France that is 1Gbps internet to host my internet radio station, would have liked to do it from home but my speeds are crap, so looks like the French get the income, not Australian's.
gnome
Perhaps people are looking sadly at some of their shareholdings rather that assessing the future for national broadband.
The NBN FTTP pipes will be be in place for probably fifty years, and with tech development during that time should continue to meet current needs as they evolve.
What was suitable for some people up to now will not meet the standard required in ten or even five years, let alone later than that. In many cases this appears to have completely escaped the notice of some of the current nay-sayers.
Steve
1Gbps? really? i would love just to have ADSL 2+ for around $60 with perhaps 50GB I might be asking to much here but I'm on 1.5Mbps with 25GB and it's costing $60. But all that said, to my understanding our cables are creaking and occasionally breaking upgrading them with need to be done eventually but is now the best time?
Alan T
I would just like to say I live within 2Km of a Telstra ASL2+ exchange in WA (just outside the large regional centre Bunbury) and 95% of the houses within the area cannot have it connected because of the lack of capacity at the exchange. Bunbury does not have sufficient coverage for the demand, so there is a waiting list of hundreds is some of the suburbs. The situation is just a joke, but I have no confidence that I and the local community will have access to anything better when the NBN is rolled out. The homes that do not have access to the fibre connection will be stuck with a slow, flakey and expensive connections.
Johnny
When you analyze the past trends of increases in broadband speeds, especially recently, by 2020 I would imagine 1 terabit connections at least.
They need to aim much higher than they are!!!!
Tim
I was 300 meters away from 10 gig 2 years ago. The demand is already more than ?PON can deliver and the NBN seems to be a scam to dump obsolete gear from international locations on the Australian taxpayer.
petey
If he actually believes what he is saying then why is he replacing individual copper lines with a shared fibre system. By the time it gets built we will be looking to upgrade again because of the technology used being unable to meet the increased demand. They only need to look at google's fibre installation to see how things should be done. I predict this will turn into a rims 2.0 situation in the near future.
D Newman
Demand is going to out pace the proposed NBN prediction, once all the people that have been denied access to decent bandwidth get online, going to cause a ramping of demand.
Most Australians are making do with connection types that were deemed low end 10 years ago in most other countries, and i,m being very generous with the 10 years, pricing models as well are out of step with product delivery.
Just hoping the NBN futureproof enough, as for the naysayers, at what point does a government step in, to do something the private sector can not, as the price for the upgrade is not practical for the private sector, it will never happen, you will be fed B/S and spin and given a wireless connection with much fanfare.
We all know its freaking expensive, but the alternative is we all go back to being sheep farmers, and give up, start worshipping rocks and being amazed at fire, bit extreme but the widening infrastruture gap is making us look that way to many others.
If only Tony Abbot or anyone in his party could just stand up and state policy on this, we all could have a reasonable comparison and discussion, its not like they are asked alot to state any policy, but going BAH BAH Humbug all the time isnt very constructive and just encourages extreme polar views, and does nothing to help this country update.
This has got to be a government undertaking, either by Rudd or Abbott, the private sector can not do it, and what is occurring is a bit of a circus, one side being draconian and not understanding the tech , (NBN and filter), the other side either not understanding the tech, or wishing it would go away.
Sam Hendry
The whole idea of the NBN is to take the infastructure back from tesltra. Telstra have held this country back in technology to fill there ever bloting bottom line. never upgrading there network where it is needed. supplying back hauls that are crowded and over priced. they charge a premium for there products and don't even supply them.
I have very high hopes for the NBN. People who say we don't need more bandwidth just have no clue.
we are still using satilites in most areas for pay tv.
movies on demand can only be accessed in 30% of homes in australia.
phone lines are mostly still owned by telstra and there is NO CHOICE!
we pay a connection and disconnection for every service we have in our house.
With one cable suplying all of these we should be able to turn them off and on with a menu on our tv!
if it costs $5000 to connect my house to fibre Sign me up!
i want to be able to play my video games when i want. and how i want with no internet woes.
i want home shopping to really be user freindly and more convenient then walking through over crowded supermarkets.
So you just check your email and face book??
you likely paying $40 a month to do somthing that can be done on any Smart phone these days. NBN should solve all of these problems.
who cares how much it costs to roll out there is only so much tax. I pay tax i want better roads and hospitals.
i have been paying tax for 15 years of my working life plus gst and the roads suck in my area and the hospital is considered one of the worst in this country. but there not going to fix it and it's been bad for years.
so good on em for putting money into somthing that is not east temor, afganistan or some other country crying out for help. not that i don't care but as the 70% of australia that has terrible facilitys. i just want some decent internet.
RS
D. Newman...nice work, absloutely, spot on comment!
Thank you.
Trevor Rashuto
People forget quite quickly why we are in the position we are in today. It is the Government that has caused this mess with deregulation of the Telecommunications industry & infrastructure and the sell off of Telstra. Why would I want to rebuild another Telstra at the cost of my Tax dollars. Regardless of speed, we are only as fast as our slowest link or connection! wake up... people, where do you think you will obtain throughput of 1GB's..... We could have 10Ge, 40Ge, 1TB ect, ect but at what throughput guarentee.
There are no commercial Wi-Fi or wireless networking devices that can support these speeds moreover the throughput guarentee to support 1GB's. Wake up users and bloggers we do not need a 1GB's per second speeds. Why do we need another Tax payer funded Telstra, Why re-build a network that is supported already by 200+ Carriers and the USO protection to consumers. The Government has its priorities wrong. Due to Governments selling off and privatising the utility sectors, we are in this position like it or lump it. With NBN You cannot have it both ways, ie Government owned network competing with privately owned networks it is just not fair or capable of being profitable. CVN.
gnome
The problem you haven't addressed, Trev, is that the network may be supported (accessed) by 200 carriers but it's controlled by Telstra Corporation for their own benefit, not the benefit of end-users.
Telstra seems to have a long history of delaying upgrades to boost monopolistic advantage, then using that to screw the users and retailers through access charges. It's true that previous governments stuffed up the sale of Telstra, but the history of the company means that they still cannot be trusted.
Many users may not have needed 1GB so far, but most will need that and more well within the life of the NBN. We need to plan for that now in a way that will not continue existing monopolistic behaviour.
D Newman
@Trevor Rashuto....
Your comments are fair and valid, and your opinion is sound , I dont agree with you on why rebuild a network issue, but taking an over view of Australias currant infrastructure, and who owns it, what would you suggest instead?
And without just looking at your own needs try to encompass all net traffic and future world wide trends, not currant Australian trends, as they are dictated currantly due to massive under devolpment, and are artificialy surpressed.
What would you do? also bearing in mind currant standards are 10 years+ behind and any slight improvement still doesnt bring Australia In line with other countries, lets say all of Europe and the US as an example.
Heck I was getting a better service and bang for my buck when I did a short contract in Poland for heavens sake, and I had to drive around horse and carts to get to my work site.
Sad fact is one company pulling all the strings on Australias IT future has left this country in a shocking state, and only a complete rebuild is going to bring things up to and beyond standard, it has to be a government undertaking, purely because of the size and scale, its going to cause alot of butt-hurt to the "cant see the bigger picture, beyond myself" crowd, because most of that crowd only know the pitiful service its been forced fed so far.
Trevor Rashuto
I can see from the comments above that many support speeds of 1Gb's based assumptions of need and future potential of use... this also includes the statement by Mike Quigley (CEO NBN) recomendations and predictions.
The reality is that this will never be built or cost effective to the general consumer!. Why?, because we have a deregulated Telecommunications industry and one which must see profits before investment of infrastructure build, by building this new Network the Goverment breaches many of the ACCC protections it put in place to protect competition in a deregulated industry in the first place.
Unlike Europe or America with populations in the 100's of Millions, Australia has a finite population and georgaphically diverse Telecommunications infrastructure.
Just like Electricity, Gas and Water someone has to build it and make a profit from it. Unfortunately no one see's bits and bytes as a commodity and a pay for use.
If I wanted a faster train could I get i get?. (Europe/Japan has it).
If I wanted a hospital closer to my property would I get?.
If I wanted a 3" water main to support a 1klt a second flow (industry has it) would I get it.
So who should pay? Should the Government go and re-build sold off assets (Like Telstra's) or is the Utility sector expected to increase and invest for no co-contribution.
Why is Telsta always under fire when it is a PLC, Just like Optus (SingTel), AAPT (NZ), Primus (US) ect who all have their own fibred networks.
Stand back and look long and hard at what the government is doing, what you are wanting and requesting and then do the math. NBN does not add up, no one can afford it and no one needs it, but what ever occurs the Tax payer will fun it.
Information already points to the NBN report that will be presented soon based on ROI that it (NBN) cannot be built and profit without the assistance of Australia only true Full service Carrier Telstra.
RS
Trevor you started of rationally then wallowed into TLS shareholder waffle.
Telstra is NOT a PLC like the others here in Australia, because the others were not vested an Australia wide, monopoly PSTN, like Telstra was.
Yes, Telstra was privatised firstly in 1997, then '99 and finally in 2006, with TLS shareholders not gaining a controlling interest in Telstra until 2006.
But the monopoly PSTN and subsequent $b's each year in profit, was vested to Telstra in 1992.
That's why Telstra are (as the incumbents worldwide are too) treated differently and have to be treated differently.
Trevor Rashuto
RS (WTFRUON). "Telstra is NOT a PLC Like others here is Australia.
What is your arguement here?. My point is...The issue here is the NBN and why we should would want to pay (tax payer funded) $30-40B $AU to re-build, and re-footprint a previously owned carrier like Telstra. Telstra are a PLC regarless of your definition and operate their asset like all others as a business.
The agruement could be that of Optus for these discussion purposes not Telstra. Forget the Carrier arguement and Telstra, the blame is not the carrier or carriers, the balme and questioning should go to the Government, the communication minister and Rud, why privatise in the first place?.
So we build the NBN we get 1Gb's, then what? the government sell off its stake again back to the Public.
Joel Hinch
@Sam Hendry
i couldn't agree more. you are 100% correct.
We need the network for 3 things
1. To supply high speed internet to homes, schools, hospitals and companies.
2. To host our phone lines (stop paying telstra)
3. For cable TV
People say that there is nothing wrong with their internet and it is reasonably fast. Well those people are very lucky, i have access to ADSL2+ but let me tell you just because i have access to it doesn't mean it is quick. ADSL2+ is only fast if you live very close to your telephone exchange, where as most of us live far away from them.
My internet speed is hopeless along with many Australians.
Every time there is decent rain fall, my phone line gets cut off, the last time it happened i was disconnected from the internet and my home phone, for a solid week, because telstra don't give a crap (i am with exetel, but telstra own the phone lines) their servicemen have to come back 3 times before its fixed because they do a crappy job and these copper phone lines are simply crap.
We will eventually need these new fibre-optic lines, so why not now and people that disagree need to stop just thinking about them selves and think of the people that have crap access to the internet and phone lines.
EVR
Spend money in NBN is better than spending in stupid Wars. Compare the price paid by the US for a week of war operations and it will beat the estimate cost for the NBN project.
Let's get it done, mate!
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