Desktop Linux: why you shouldn't care
- 18 May, 2009 14:07
- Comments 8
Recently, the Web site analytics company Net Applications came out with figures that showed that in April, the percentage of "client devices" used to surf the Web that were running Linux crossed the 1% level for the first time ever -- 1.02%, to be exact. The firm enthusiastically noted that "Linux has reached this important milestone on the client as Linux-based systems have become more functional, easier to use, and pre-installed on computers from vendors like Dell."
On the Web, you'd think manna had fallen from heaven. Linux backers touted the 1% breakthrough and prognosticated that Linux could eventually reach 20% market share.
My response: Not in this lifetime. And in any event, you simply shouldn't care about Linux on the desktop.
Let's start off with why Linux will never become an important desktop or notebook operating system. Linux has been around since 1991 -- a full 18 years -- and is available for free. Given that, the recent "milestone" of 1% market share doesn't seem so impressive.
In addition, if you do some digging in the Net Applications numbers, you'll see that from August to March, Linux use was largely flat. Last August, Linux's market share stood at 0.93% and then gradually declined before picking up again and reaching that 1.02% apex in April. So it's not as if Linux is on a skyrocket trajectory.
There's also some evidence that Linux market share won't likely ever get much higher than 1%, and certainly not more than 5%. The primary reason for the growth of Linux is the growing use of netbooks -- inexpensive devices used primarily to surf the Web and send and receive e-mail. When netbooks were first sold, Linux was the desktop operating system on about 30% of them. Netbooks have been the fastest-growing segment of the PC market, which is why Linux finally broke the 1% barrier.
But Linux isn't faring so well on netbooks these days. Analyst firm NPD Group found that, by the beginning of this year, only 10% of all netbooks sold had Linux on them, and that number is likely shrinking. And Windows 7 will run on netbooks -- something that Vista doesn't do -- which means that Linux market share will drop even further when Microsoft launches a big Windows 7 marketing campaign.
How about Linux on desktop or notebook PCs? If you hunt hard enough, you'll be able to buy some from Dell. But apart from that, good luck. You might as well go on a snipe hunt.
Desktop Linux will simply never be popular enough for most people to care about. One big reason is the difficulty of upgrading and installing software. It's true that using the operating system itself is simple and straightforward -- much easier than it was in the days when you had to be a command-line junkie to get anything done with Linux.
But when you try to install new software, or upgrade existing software, you'll be in for trouble. I won't get down and dirty with the details here, but believe me, it's not pretty.
Beyond that, there is no single version of Linux, and so by definition, using it becomes a nonstandard experience. How many versions are there? I'm not sure anyone really knows. But these are just a few variants: Gentoo, Debian, Knoppix, Mandriva, SUSE, Red Hat, Xandros, Ubuntu, Slackware -- and the list goes on.
The upshot? As a desktop operating system, Linux isn't important enough to think about. For servers, it's top-notch, but you likely won't use it on your desktop -- even though it did finally manage to crack the 1% barrier after 18 years.
Preston Gralla is a contributing editor for Computerworld.com and the author of more than 35 books, includingHow the Internet Works(Que, 2006).
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Comments
Peter
You don't know anything about Linux!
Hey man,
don't write such things. You haven't enough experience with Linux. Ubuntu is a very easy linux. Updating and program installing is realy easy. You can install software with the packet-manager and you get automatical update-notifications. then you can update with only one click. there are no viruses, the design is beautiful and you can unse windows-software as well. Try linux, talk with some experienced users and then you can write an opinion.
Best wishes from germany,
peter
Anonymous
Mr Gralla's credibility is down the toilet.
Gee and I thought installing an application on Linux was so, so easy compared to Windows. Not to mention that the application is most likely free. A long time ago this may have been the case but not now. Preston Gralla is obviously getting a kickback from Microsoft to write stories like this.
A case in point - yesterday I had to install an app on a Windows XP Professional PC - the app was badly written and required Admin privileges to install on a roaming profile domain machine with normal user access. Could not simply install as Administrator - had to elevate profile to Admin, install app as user then de-elevate before it would work. To install an app on linux simply type yum install app as Admin. So Mr Gralla where are you coming from?
kodiakrain
LINUX unimportant? Hard? smoke another one!
I am largely still a student of Tech world and support agent for installing primary operating systems. Funny to even hear myself say that.. I am not the typical software geek , by any measure. 10 years ago i ran into some one who was touting the beauties of LINUX.. I had not the First clue what that was.. I made an attempt to install it and quickly messed up a THEN nice laptop. It took me a week to figure out my mess.. as would any one who is doing some thing BY THEMSELVES , WITH no support at all. This being.. i had no idea how MUCH support there really was to the LINUX FORUMS. A few years went by and i was consistent of saying. LINUX arrg! who would want that! and then relay my story of the head aches it caused me.
I finally ran into some one with a plan who told me how things worked in the LINUX world. I did a download of a flimsy version of Linux.. was walked through an install IN Duel boot. it had flaws.. it was a beta or sorts.. but by the large.. my annual Virus attacks and hard drive losses.. STOPPED there. i have used or tested about 11 different types of GNU/LINUX now.. and i find that it is Stable..function ABLE in every way.. just CAN DO.. what YOU want it to do.. YOUR WAY.. a little support.. FREE MIND YOU.. and you can change nearly every single thing on the system. Installs hard? NOT at ALL! Click click and Run. some have package managers that are strictly GUI and so easy a child of 5 could do it.. and that VIRUS issue? Mal ware? Slowing down my system? Defragging?Virused attachments?what about using cross over software? yeah.. all that stopped from the day i went GNU/LINUX. I have not had to complain of loss of data.. a New Virus issue or slow boot ups in years! Some.. if i wanted to use it.. MS software works very well on my LINUX system.. but why would i do that if i can get it all for Free and works better than "the other guys". True.. not many games work well as cross over's. BUT Linux has every conceivable type of game that is on the market for the " OTHER GUYS" in some form.. and largely.. FREE. they work better too.
Do some research and stop writing tripe like this.
RJ
By me!
Mind the grabby priests...
To the author:
My thoughts after reading this article is that you've never actually used Linux. Instead, you chose to do a dual boot once, it crashed after a week or two (usually because of windows' buggy MBR) and you've never used it since. Then one day you've stumbled upon some screenshots or Linux "hype" article and you've decided to write something.
Now to your actual content:
I've used linux periodically, from about 6 years ago to this day. 6 years ago it you had to know a lot of commands and work your way on the terminal like a code-monkey to get anything done. Today you won't have to touch the terminal. You might want to at times to make short-cuts, but as a regular user, the amount of times you'll need to use the terminal is equivalent to the amount of times you open MS-DOS to type "ipconfig" and "netstat -a" on windows.
I used to run a dual-boot with Windows XP, back in the day when Linux was just not there yet. But today I run a lone operating system on my pc and two laptops - Linux! Why? Because it's fast, much faster than windows. Because Vista was horrible, stayed horrible, and is now being replaced by basically Windows 7 and not upgraded with a service pack only because it has such a bad reputation. Because Windows 7 is Vista with a service pack.
The Linux of today is SO easy to install. Pop the cd into the tray and restart. On most distributions you get a WORKING operating system just so you can try it out, complete with connecting to the Wi-Fi! Then you install it, not some outdated, out of resolution primitive installation like Windows (any version!). Two clicks and you're done. At this point the user will discover that his machine is able to boot into an operating system in less than 5 minutes. Or to be exact, in less than 25 seconds.
The new GUI from GTK+ and KDE is stunning and is running years ahead of Windows or Mac! And the genius is that you can just bloody choose how your desktop environment will work.
Software is available from a GUI package manager which instantly finds only relevant to your system specifications software. And of course FREE which we're starting to forget in a slowly Applising world.
I challenge you to install Ubuntu/Kubuntu 9.04 and tell me it's not the most beautiful, fluid, easy to work operating systems you've ever worked with. Yes, it might take you a week or two to wrap your head around some different concepts, but that's no different than changing from Mac to Windows or buying new shoes. You have to wear out the rubber a little..
And you're talking about Linux subsiding on netbooks? Have you heard about Moblin?! (or done any research at all apart from your own distorted opinions formed in 1995?)
Moblin and Ubuntu both are taking over netbooks, not only that, Ubuntu is already ported to ARM while Moblin will soon (even if Lenovo doesn't like it). Which means they run on smart phones. With a growing talk about a Android which doesn't seem to go anywhere, Linux is your answer.
What you CAN not care about are Macs. Macs will disappear from this world along with Steve Jobs. Without their marketing genius they only have over-priced, 'fad' driven products. And their OS is SO annoying (based on the open source KDE by the way!)
In conclusion: Yes Linux has its faults, but these are slowly decreasing every month. While up to now Linux desktop environments were playing catch-up with Windows features, they have no surpassed it. And they did so with less bugs. In my opinion KDE is going to win over GTK+ because of its superior design philosophy but I should reserve that for another debate.
Windows will die, it has started with Vista and it will continue with Windows 7. Macs will die along with Steve. I'm not saying no new competitors and new technologies will rise up to the challenge. But for you to say Open Source will NEVER be as important as buggy, completely over-priced software in a declining economy and a world that is slowly turning Open Source - consider Firefox, which now accounts for a staggering 25% of the market share. With most blogs, along with YouTube report a staggering average of 50-60% Firefox users. For you to say the average user shouldn't care is simply put - stupid.
Enjoy living on your flat, centre of the Universe, sun-revolved Earth dear child. You're following a known path well established by the Catholic church. Mind the grabby priests..
Me.
suntra
Please think before u right
Nonsense article. I have been using Ubuntu for 3 years now. No virus,no spyware. Linux is god's gift. Mr Gralla go back to writing about Windows. You re very much needed there. Please I beg u for god sake.
Andy R. Schmitz
Trying to balance the pro/anti-Linux Teeter Totter
I run my own computer support business. And as such, I use Linux for practically everything. It can do everything I need it to, and more. But, the author's correct. Linux will never be a true competitor with Windows. It's designed for a different audience.
I deal with people (several people) who don't know how to let Norton scan their computer. One smart virus opened a popup every time Norton started scanning. The client bought this new anti-virus software twice before even suspecting it was a scam, and calling me for help.
Those kinds of people are the silent majority of computer users. That's why Geek Squad can charge $140 to install RAM, in-home (RAM not included). Anyone who reads or especially contributes to forums/articles, is already a technology super-user, whether they think they are or not.
In other words, Linux will always be the OS of the elite, because people are idiots.
Sagaci
Installing software is hard on Ubuntu Linux?
Go to Add/Remove, check the software you want. Type your password (a security mechanism that isn't used in Windows), click apply.
Reboltutorial
The problem is I can't find the same softwares on Linux
I'm using Metatrader for trading the forex market, well trying to make it work on Linux with Wine is a pain in the check so I gave up.
Linux doesn't care about end user softwares because Linux are made by Geeks for Geeks mostly.
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